Spain’s economy expected to bounce back in third quarter

SPAIN’S economy will show a significant bounce back in the third quarter, according to the most recent AIReF Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility calculations.

The organisation headed by Cristina Herrero expects the national economy to grow by 15.2 per cent between the beginning of July and the end of September.

AIReF has based its predictions on MIPred, a real time model forecasting the evolution of GDP which the body updates with the available statistics.

It takes into account data like the average number of workers being registered in the Social Security system, consumption of cement and electricity, the financing of companies, imports and the number of people on ERTE temporary suspensions of job contracts.

The forecast is positive news, but this increase would not be sufficient to make up for the historic 18.5 per cent drop in Spain’s Gross Domestic Product registered for the second quarter of the year as a result of the Covid-19 crisis and lockdown.

The hammer blow of the pandemic also means that Spain is expected to end the year with an economic decline.

The Government has put the drop for the whole of 2020 at 9.2 per cent, while the latest predictions from the AIReF put it at somewhere between 10.1 and 12.4 per cent, depending on how the Covid-19 situation pans out.

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Written by

Cathy Elelman

Cathy Elelman is the local writer for the Costa de Almeria edition of the Euro Weekly News.

Based in Mojacar for the last 21 years, Cathy is very much part of the local community and is always well and truly up on all the latest news and events going on in this region of Spain.

Her top goals are to do the best job she can informing the local English-speaking community, visitors to the area and the wider world about about the news in Almeria, to learn something new every day, and to embrace very new challenge this fast-changing world brings her way.

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    • Herbert Lichtenwald

      25 August 2020 • 09:22

      where will this recovery come from?
      of even more debts / aid payments from the EU?
      Fake news from stupid, incompetent politicians who caused this crisis

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