The real reason why the price of gas is increasing

The real reason why the price of gas is increasing is due to Trump’s diplomatic gift to Rabat. When Trump did this, he recognised the sovereignty over Western Sahara. This has led to an escalation of tensions in one of its neighbouring areas. European action over the situation has caused more problems in the fight for control by the Maghreb powers. They want the power of the control of gas and to have regional arms authority.

Geopolitical Triangle

It has so dragged other major international powers to become entangled ie, the US, Europe, China and Russia. This has encouraged a worsening of economic tensions. In both the energy sector and security tensions, with an increase in military spending by both contenders. Spain pays a high energy price for its geopolitical triangle with Algeria and Morocco

This threatens the stability of gas prices and supplies to Spain and Portugal, which is why the price of gas is increasing. The closure of the Algerian gas pipeline forces a doubling of supply by ship. Spain finds itself at a difficult crossroads, which is not easy to resolve due to the sensitivity of relations between Rabat and Algiers.

The gas affair also leaves two other traces of the aftermath – by absence – of European foreign policy in the Maghreb. The first is that Algeria is keeping its two gas pipelines with Italy open, via Tunisia and the Strait of Sicily. France has managed to revive their influence with them. Meanwhile, the opening of the Medgaz spigot remains at a more expensive bill in the face of attempts to “update” its contracts with Spain’s Naturgy.

Mutual increase in spending

In this race to nowhere, there is also a mutual increase in defence spending. In Rabat’s case, this has risen to 12 per cent, to 4.8 billion euros by 2022. This was announced after the closure of the Algerian gas flow. Algiers announced a 7.8 per cent increase in defence spending.

The Elcano Institute calls for ‘a Euro-Mediterranean energy narrative aligned with the EU’s Green Pact’. which will incorporate renewable energies into a geopolitical scenario welcoming new natural gas producers, both Mediterranean and foreign. This will create an appropriate climate of energy neutrality reforms in the sector. It will inaugurate an EU cycle with a more geopolitical focus on the region. The aim of this is to stop the price of gas rising even more, although, for the moment, there does not seem to be an immediate solution.

Geopolitical Triangle

The conflict between Morocco and Algeria has ceased to be a bilateral altercation. It is now taking on the appearance of becoming a focus of a multitude of issues of great global geostrategic importance. It has consequently dragged other major international powers to become entangled ie, the US, Europe, China and Russia. This diplomatic crossfire could alter the fragile balance in the Maghreb through a worsening of economic tensions, in the energy and security sector, with an increase in military spending by both contenders. Spain pays a high energy price for its geopolitical triangle with Algeria and Morocco

This situation threatens the stability of the price of gas and supplies to Spain and Portugal. This explains which is why the price of gas is increasing. The closure of the Algerian gas pipeline forces the use of supply by ship instead adding more costs. Spain finds itself at a difficult crossroads, which is difficult to resolve due to the sensitivity of relations between Rabat and Algiers. Intissar Fakir, Director for North Africa and the Sahel at the Middle East Institute (MEI), gives a precise outline of the factors that are holding back a possible imminent resolution of the geopolitical and gas puzzle in the Maghreb. In his opinion, ‘the Trump administration’s recognition of Rabat’s sovereignty over the Sahara has blown apart Algeria’s efforts to isolate Morocco’.

The gas affair also leaves two other traces of the aftermath – by absence – of European foreign policy in the Maghreb. The first is that Algeria is keeping its two gas pipelines with Italy open. Via Tunisia, a country with which France has managed to revive its influence, and the Strait of Sicily.

Meanwhile, the opening of the Medgaz spigot remains at the expense of a more expensive bill in the face of attempts to “update” its contracts with Spain’s Naturgy.

Mutual increase in spending

In this race to nowhere, there is also a mutual increase in defence spending. In Rabat’s case, this has risen to 12 per cent, to 4.8 billion euros by 2022, announced after the closure of the Algerian gas flow, while Algiers announced a 7.8 per cent increase in defence spending.

This sort of Spanish diplomatic hijacking of its Maghreb triangle has led analysts from the Elcano Institute to call for ‘a Euro-Mediterranean energy narrative aligned with the EU’s Green Pact”. This will incorporate renewable energies into a geopolitical scenario more dominated by oil and natural gas. The aim of this is to stop the price of gas rising even more, although, for the moment, there does not seem to be an immediate solution.

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