By Matthew Roscoe •
Updated: 27 Oct 2022 • 12:33
Belarus mocked by Ukraine for 'not having properly equipped "strike force" to launch offensive'. Image: gur.gov.ua/Official
After mocking Belarus for not having a “strike force” that would be properly equipped for an offensive in Ukraine, Chernyak told RBC-Ukraine that Russia’s ally “conducts personnel training in order to divert Ukraine’s attention and forces from the east and south.”
According to the representative of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, since April, Alexander Lukashenko has regularly tried to avoid an open invasion of Ukraine, “despite the fact that he became a participant in this war a long time ago when he gave his territory to Russia.”
Chernyak said: “Of course, there is a potential danger from Belarus for Ukraine. Attack UAVs purchased by Russia from Iran are launched from the territory of the Republic of Belarus, MiG-31K aircraft, which can carry Dagger missiles, have been moved there.”
As previously reported, Russia has already sent citizens to Belarus that were recently drafted into the Russian military under orders of President Putin.
These people do not have proper weapons or equipment, Chernyak noted.
“They are brought in by rail,” he said.
“At the same time, tanks and armoured personnel carriers repaired in Belarus are sent, on the contrary, to Russia,” explained the representative of military intelligence of Ukraine.
On Saturday, October 15, the Belarusian Defence Ministry released footage showing the arrival of the first group of Russian troops in Belarus for the ‘joint regional group of forces’ announced by Lukashenko and Putin.
The Belarusian Defence Ministry published the footage alongside the words: “The servicemen were warmly welcomed with bread and salt.
“The decision to establish a regional grouping of troops (forces) was taken to strengthen the protection and defence of the state border of the Union State within Belarus. The decision was taken due to the continued activity in the areas bordering with us.”
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Originally from the UK, Matthew is based on the Costa Blanca and is a web reporter for The Euro Weekly News covering international and Spanish national news. Got a news story you want to share? Then get in touch at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Putin recently said, “Sending troops into direct engagement, a direct clash with the Russian Army is a very dangerous step that could lead to a global catastrophe. I hope those who talk about this will be smart enough not to undertake such dangerous steps.”
My suggestion to slowly put boots on the ground doesn’t involve a direct engagement or a direct clash. At the moment, there is no engagement at the border between Ukraine and Belarus. Unfortunately, Russia and Belarus keep moving troops around in threatening ways and require Ukraine to keep troops along their side of the border, troops who could be more useful somewhere else.
It may be time for someone else to monitor the border. It might not actually be a NATO deployment. It might be undertaken by one or more individual countries. It has frequently been pointed out that Poland, the Baltic states and other former Soviet countries have less patience with Russia than their western neighbours. It might even be the existing Trilateral Brigade.
The brigade’s headquarters is staffed with a mix of soldiers from Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine and is capable of planning, organizing, commanding, and controlling three associated combat units—one mechanized infantry battalion from each of Lithuania and Poland and a Ukrainian air assault unit—and combat support units.
Even if such an action were not a sanctioned NATO deployment it would involve NATO countries. How willing would Putin or Lukashenko be to cross the border knowing that such an action would involve confronting NATO troops and the question, “Does this involve Article 5?”
The following paragraph is from a recent article released by the Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Lithuania.
One caveat is that highly motivated Trilateral Brigade members and their governments may have higher risk acceptance thresholds than the United States and some other NATO country planners; this brings the discussion back to the fundamental concern over escalation described earlier. During our interviews in Poland, we regularly encountered dismissive attitudes toward the risks of Russo-Ukraine War escalation in interactions with the brigade’s personnel and various other members of the three countries’ armed forces. While there is significant alignment of partners’ strategic aims, coupled with significant capabilities, differing assessments of risk pose the possibility that recipients of assistance will use resources in aggressive and provocative ways that are not to Washington’s tastes and would concern NATO partners that do not share experiences of Soviet rule.
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