Spanish Elections: What’s Next?

LAST night, July 23, in a tense and close election race, the results were finally in, but the results are no clearer after its conclusion.

No Clear Winner

The right-wing block made up of Partido Popular (PP), and Vox reached a maximum of 169 votes, while the left-wing bloc made up of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Sumar totalled 153 votes. Neither party obtained results from an absolute majority.

PP won with a higher number of votes in total, but this is not a clear path to victory. Now, the decision is down to pacts that the parties form, as both leading parties do not have sufficient votes to govern Spain as a single party.

PP Falls Short of 176 Votes

As PP has made clear that it did not want to rule with Vox, despite the two parties governing several regional governments together after the regional elections in May 2023, Alberto Núñez Feijóo does not have enough votes to be sworn in as Spain’s next leader, falling short of the threshold of 176 seats. In his speech, Feijóo said that he wants to claim his right to become the next leader of Spain since he won with a majority of the popular vote.

PSOE’s Success Relies on Pro-Independence Parties

Meanwhile, the PSOE must form pacts with other parties and can govern with the support of Sumar, Catalan and Basque independence parties, the ERC, Bildu, PNV and BNG (other regional parties) despite not obtaining the highest votes.

The success of PSOE hangs heavily on the Junts party decision, led by Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled to Belgium after holding the referendum in October 2022 on Catalan Independence, a move that sparked controversy and created fissures in Spain between the left and right. Puidgdemont has already stated that he would neither support the PSOE nor PP and now his decision may have a significant impact.

Pedro Sánchez, the PSOE candidate and current Prime Minister, celebrated a victory, saying, “We have won more votes, more seats and a higher percentage than four years ago.”

Yolanda Diaz of Sumar said, “Many people were worried, and tonight, they will sleep more soundly”, regarding national and international concerns about a right-wing bloc forming between PP and Vox.

Meanwhile, the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, who lost popularity compared to the 2019 elections, criticized the PP government in his speech and warned that “Pedro Sánchez, even after losing the election, could still block the formation of a government”.

Record Voter Turnout

With a 70.33 per cent voter turnout that was four points higher than the 2019 elections, and despite scorching hot temperatures in the middle of July, in the peak of summer holidays, 24 million people cast their ballots, including by post in one of the record-breaking numbers of mail votes cast in Spain.

With such close results, a likely outcome may be a call for new elections, with Pedro Sánchez remaining in Moncloa as Prime Minister.