PP and PSOE currently neck and neck

THE most recent Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS) poll put the PSOE socialists and the Partido Popular practically on level pegging.

The CIS president Jose Felix Tezanos was appointed by the PSOE in June 2018 immediately after the exit of Mariano Rajoy PP government following a no-confidence vote.

It should be pointed out that Tezanos makes no secret of his personal support for Pedro Sanchez but it should also be pointed out that only the CIS and the El Pais-Cadena Ser’s 40dB polls predicted that the PP’s Alberto Nuñez Feijoo would not triumph in the July 23 general election.

At the same time, the results of the latest 40dB poll published on October 8 were less encouraging for the PSOE, as voting intentions would have put Feijoo, with the assistance of Vox, in the Moncloa Palace.

According to the CIS Barometer, Pedro Sanchez could at present win a hypothetical general election with 32.6 per cent of the vote, compared with Feijoo’s 32.2 per cent.  The socialists have nevertheless dropped by almost 1 percentage point (0.8) since the September barometer while the PP gained half a percentage point.

Sumar, the coalition of parties to the Left of the PSOE, gained 0.8 of a percentage point to rise to third place with 12.7 per cent support from voters.  Vox, in fourth place with 10.1 per cent, lost 1 percentage point.

All of which suggests that if natural allies’ tallies are added together,  the PSOE and Sumar between them would get  45.3 per cent of the vote, with  42.3 per cent for  the PP and Vox.  Assuming that Sanchez could count on vital backing from the nationalist parties the incumbent president would keep his job.

In the popularity stakes, 29.2 per cent of CIS respondents would prefer to see Pedro Sanchez as president, compared with 23.5 per cent who plumped for Feijoo.

Yolanda Diaz, Sumar leader as well as the PSOE-UP coalition’s Labour minister, was chosen by 9.1 per cent with 4.5 per cent naming Santiago Abascal, who heads Vox.

None of the four principal players could scrape five out of a theoretical 10, although Sanchez came off best with 4.51.  This was the first time he has ever managed to overtake Yolanda Diaz who obtained 4.49, just ahead of Feijoo (4.48) and Abascal who lagged behind on 2.83.