The Bayesian yacht tragedy: As seen through the eyes of a RICS Surveyor and Maritime Casualty Investigator

Captain Ed Geary shares his thoughts on last week’s tragic case and explains what the investigation into the sinking of the Bayesian could reveal.

The Bayesian tragedy was a huge breaking story last week not only because of the unusual events that led up to the sinking but also because of the human element to the story. As is always the case when such stories break, hope remained that the story would have a happy ending right up until the news that the last lifeless bodies were found on Thursday. Sadly, this story gave us no such happy ending, with the sinking claiming seven lives including one just on the edge of beginning. 

When the initial intrigue dissipates, lingering questions inevitably remain. For those directly involved in the events leading up to the tragedy, these questions may bring up more details about the fateful last hours of the Bayesian and its seven victims. At this point, expert insights will be invaluable to piece together what happened, to give the grieving families the answers they’ll doubtless be looking for, and to see if lessons can be learned to prevent tragic sagas like this happening again.

Following his appearance on Sky News Breakfast television programme and seeing our coverage of the Bayesian, one such expert got in touch with us to give us some fascinating insights into the investigation that will follow the sinking of the vessel. Captain Ed Geary saw the Bayesian himself early this month tied to the quay in Gibraltar, noting the vessel’s elegant profile and impressive 72m mast.

Captain Geary has been kind enough to share his views on the matter and outline some of the critical issues that will be addressed in the forthcoming investigation.

What the Investigation Will Attempt to Discover

Essentially, the investigation will attempt to determine if- or where- blame is to be placed, if the tragedy could have been prevented, and if there are lessons to be learned going forward. The team will attempt to establish the following the facts that will shape the conclusion of their investigation:

1. Compliance of the Bayesian to Industry Regulations

Of the seven victims claimed by the tragedy, only one was a crew member: Canadian chef Recaldo Thomas. This will inevitably raise questions about how the Captain and crew were able to escape while seven passengers remained on board as the vessel capsized. Individual interviews with the Captain, James Cutfield, and each of the surviving crew members will therefore be conducted to determine if any criminal action took place.

Captain Geary has outlined some of the key points the surviving crew members will be asked:

• With memories of the tragic loss of the Cheeky Rafiki in 2014 it’s imporant to identify who and which Certifying Authority was responsible for preparing and issuing the vessel’s Stability Booklet.
• The extent of the yacht’s compliance to the Small Commercial Vessel (SCV) Code.
• If the vessel’s Doppler and other radars were on and functioning. If they were, the Captain will be asked if he recorded weather patterns in the Ship’s Log.

The removal of the bodies of the seven souls who lost their lives from the wreck means that salvage efforts to raise the vessel can begin. The authorities will then be able to recover the Ships Deck and Machinery Logs and the Safety Management System (SMS) to find out what action was taken before the yacht sank.   

2. The Status of the Ship and its Passengers When the Storm Hit

The investigation will also seek to determine how the Bayesian was anchored in the shallow waters around the port of Porticello and if the vessel’s retractable keel could have contributed to the yacht’s inability to withstand the storm.The investigation will determine what the position of the retractable keel was and if its position was recorded in the Ships Deck and/or the Machinery Log.

Retractable Keels: Popular but Plagued with Issues

Captain Geary explained that retractable keels allow yachts to enter and anchor in shallow waters and provide stability to sail offshore safely. Retractable keels have enjoyed considerable popularity, but are plagued with various problems that could affect a vessel’s stability. For example, when the cylinder and ram don’t align perfectly, jamming can be a problem when the retractable keel is lowered or raised. 

The keel is located at the lowest part of the vessel and maintains its stability while underway and at anchor. Correct positioning of the retractable keel is highly important to maintain stability as it’s heavy and bulbous and therefore must lie in the correct position. If the retractable keel wasn’t in the right place when the storm hit, it could have contributed to destabilising the vessel.

3. The Captain’s Instructions to Passengers

The actions of the Captain and the crew in the minutes leading up to the capsizing of the vessel will be of particular importance to the investigation. Among the questions the authorities will likely raise include:

• If the Captain put the crew and vessel on Alert Status in view of the approaching low pressure and storm conditions.
• If the passengers were told to proceed to the designated Assembly/Muster Station and provided with life jackets and lifeboat escape instructions as required by the vessel’s Safety Management System (SMS).
• If upon boarding the vessel, the passengers attended a Safety Briefing, which includes vital safety information like the use of flares and fire extinguishers and the boarding of life rafts as mandated by the SMS.

4. Whether Open Hatches or Other Openings Influenced the Sinking

Much has been written about the fact that the Bayesian’s hatches could have been left open, suggesting this could have influenced its swift demise. According to Captain Geary, the hatches should have been closed, but if they weren’t, it would have had little effect when the vessel capsized. This is because when a large vessel rolls onto its side at 90 degrees, an uncontrollable amount of water can enter the vessel regardless of whether the hatches are open or not.

Survivors report that the vessel rolled over and sank within a few minutes. According to Captain Geary, if this transpires to be true, there may have been little the crew could have done to save the Bayesian. That said, divers indicated that the large stern hatch was open, something Captain Geary considered strange given the low barometric pressure and the fast-approaching storm.

In the event of a 30 degree inclination to port of starboard, any opening would have allowed a substantial ingress of water that could have overwhelmed the dewatering systems. The hatches could therefore remain a key part of the investigation.

5. If the Yacht’s Manufacture or Design Contributed to the Tragedy

The investigation must establish all the facts of the case to establish if the blame lies- if anywhere- with the Captain and crew or with the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. The Bayesian was originally built in 2008 for a Dutch customer and named Salute. The vessel was subsequently bought by Mrs Lynch in 2014 and renamed Bayesian; it underwent a refit in 2020.

It’s the responsibility of the Captain and his crew to ensure that all aboard are prepared to face approaching sea and weather conditions. However, questions will be raised about whether the design of the vessel influenced the terrible outcome. 

The intrigue surrounding this question is only compounded by the fact that the CEO of the Italian Sea Group – which bought Perini Navi in 2008 – Giovanni Costantino, claimed that the yacht was “unsinkable”. Naturally, the vessel’s manufacturer will be keen to distance itself from any part of the blame and establish that the Bayesian tragedy occurred due to the negligence of the Captain and crew of the vessel.

A Refreshing Expert View on a Complex Tragedy

High-profile tragedies like the Bayesian inevitably offer a feeding frenzy for conspiracy theorists and opportunistic rumour-mongers. Gaining expert knowledge on such complex matters is therefore refreshing, valuable, and most gratefully received.

We thank Captain Geary for taking his time to share his knowledge and experience with us and will follow the investigation with continued interest.