Plane travel is safer than it’s ever been, according to new study

Flying has never been safer, according to a new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), offering reassuring news for the millions of passengers who take to the skies each year.

Despite occasional headlines about technical issues, fatalities and other challenges, the data reveals that the risk of a fatal accident on a plane is lower than ever before.

The MIT study analysed global aviation data from 2018 to 2022 and found that the likelihood of a passenger dying in a plane crash is now 1 in 13.7 million. This marks a continuation of a long-term trend toward safer air travel. Since 1968, the fatality rate in aviation has been declining by an average of 7.5 per cent per year, even as the number of flights has surged.

Interestingly, the study found that the death rate fell by 7 per cent each year between 2018 and 2022, further highlighting the improvements in flying safety.

The geographical divide in air travel safety

However, not all regions are equally safe. The study categorised countries into three tiers based on their flying safety records, providing a nuanced view of where risks are higher.

Tier 1 countries

This tier includes most of the European Union, the United States, Canada and other developed nations, boasting the lowest risk. Here, the chances of a fatal accident are 1 in 80 million passenger boardings. To put this into perspective, a person could fly daily for 220,000 years in these regions before encountering a fatal accident.

Tier 2 countries

Countries such as Brazil, India and Turkey, show a slightly higher risk, but still maintain strong safety records.

Tier 3 countries

These represent the highest risk, where the fatality rate is 36 per cent higher than in Tier 1 regions. Some of the countries in this tier are: Afghanistan, Nepal and Somalia. Despite this, the overall trend in these countries is still towards improvement, though they lag behind the safer tiers.

Technical challenges: Boeing

The study’s release comes as Boeing faces scrutiny over technical issues with its 777-9 model, leading to the grounding of test flights. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is also inspecting Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner due to concerns over faulty pilot seat movements. While these issues have made headlines, they haven’t significantly impacted the overall safety trends in the industry.

The impact of COVID-19 on air travel safety

The study also addressed the COVID-19 pandemic, which introduced a new kind of risk for air travellers. Between March 2020 and December 2022, it’s estimated that around 4,760 passengers contracted COVID-19 during flights, and then later died. While airlines initially downplayed the risk of in-flight transmission, researchers noted that the vast majority of flights had at least one COVID-positive passenger.

Despite this threat, the overall risk of dying from a plane crash or attack did not increase during the pandemic. In fact, aviation safety continued to improve, aside from the specific risk of COVID-19 transmission.

A few caveats about the plane safety study

While the study provides a comprehensive look at aviation safety, the researchers acknowledged some limitations. For example, the data did not account for the age of passengers over 65 or those under 18, which can significantly affect mortality rates.

Additionally, the estimates regarding COVID-19-related deaths on flights are necessarily imprecise, given the challenges in tracking the exact source of infection.

For expatriates living within the European Union and beyond, this study is a strong endorsement of the safety of modern air travel. Whether flying back home, exploring new countries, or conducting business abroad, the chances of a fatal incident are extraordinarily low – especially when flying within Tier 1 countries.

So, if you’re afraid of flying, the next time you board a plane, know that the odds are overwhelmingly in your favour.