Russia will be “at war” with NATO countries if Ukraine missile restrictions are lifted; hitting home?

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to be “at war” with NATO if Ukraine’s missile restrictions are lifted, as Western allies contemplate plans to support Ukraine.

The US and the UK stated in the second week of September to be considering permitting Kyiv to use Western-supplied long-range missiles against Russia, as Ukraine urges the NATO countries to lift restrictions on long-range missiles at a critical moment in the war.

Russia threatens war with NATO over Ukraine support

Vladimir Putin said to the Press on September 12 that if the West allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles, NATO would be “at war” with Russia; “This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response…”

He emphasised that “the Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West,” without NATO´s assistance, and if granted permission, European countries, the UK, and the US would be held responsible for the damage imposed on Russia.

NATO members contemplate Ukraine support over Russia´s war threat

Today, Russian drones and missiles continue entering NATO territories, whether intentionally or not, as European countries are already under the threat of Russian attacks. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently stated that Poland and neighbouring countries had a “duty” to destroy Russian missiles before they enter their airspace. This, however, would be considered by Russia a direct involvement in the war; something which the Western allies have worked hard to avoid.

Despite the drone that recently flew into Romania´s airspace, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoanā stated that the alliance had “no information indicating an intentional attack by Russia against Allies,” set on maintaining a more or less neutral position in the war between Russia and Ukraine in fear of Moscow´s attacks.

The US, however, has proved significant support of Ukraine and has already adjusted its policy to allow limited cross-border strikes into Russia using US weapons. During a recent visit to Kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said; “From day one, as you heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, and I have no doubt that we´ll continue to do that as this evolves.”

US President Biden is now facing pressure from NATO members to lift the restrictions on long-range missiles; on September 10, the bipartisan congressional Ukraine caucus called on Biden to allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with the long-range weapons. A group of key House Republicans also wrote to the president ahead of Blinken´s trip to Ukraine, appealing to support Ukraine by lifting the restrictions.

Will Russia claim war if NATO allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles?

If NATO countries would authorize the use of Western weapons for long-range strikes in Russia, the technology would become likely employed to target close-range ballistic missile systems that arrived in-country from Iran, argued former US ambassador William Courtney. With a range of 75 miles, a US-made system like ATACMS “could hit anything at that distance and well beyond.” 

Yet, authorities suggest that NATO´s decision is unlikely to be affirmative; “In an environment where 32 allies are together, it is unthinkable to have the same views on every issue,” said Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler. UK´s leader Sir Keir Starmer who is meeting with President Biden, also insisted that although “Ukraine has the right to self-defence…we don´t seek any conflict with Russia – that´s not our intention in the slightest.”

The UK government officials echoed Starmer´s hesitation; “The UK is fully aware of the risks – that people will ask what is the difference between a British tank or gun crossing the border to Russia, and a long-range weapon,” said Matthew Savill, director of military services for the London-based defense think tank RUSI. 

He also emphasised that Putin´s threat poses “a test of support and willpower – is the West going to be deterred by Russian rhetoric or not?” For at least a year, Russia has been talking about a war with NATO members but has not yet taken action, as “the Russians have been talking about for a year now as if they are already effectively at war with the US and the UK.”