Renters in Spain could pay €217 more a year as flight boom continues

Tens of thousands marched through Palma this summer in Mallorca’s biggest anti-tourism protest yet, demanding an end to airport growth. Now a study suggests the flights fuelling that anger could add up to €220 a year to rents across Spain’s most tourist-dependent regions.

Air tourism could add €217 to annual rent bills by 2031

The report, published in June by Transport & Environment (T&E) and the New Economics Foundation (NEF), estimates Spanish rents will climb by around €217 a year on average by 2031, driven largely by growth in air tourism. The study projects an 11.8 per cent increase in tourists arriving in Spain by air between 2026 and 2031.

Using this year’s prices, the researchers estimate that this growth could add €3,500 to the average value of a home and 1.6 per cent to annual rents. The predicted €217 rent increase works out at just over €18 a month. And it’s not that rents are expected to rise by €217 every year. It means the average annual bill in five years from now, in 2031, could be €217 higher than it would have been without the forecast increase in air tourism.

Across Spain, the model places the additional annual burden on renters at €648 million.

Balearics and Canarias face the sharpest rises 

That average climb in rent hides big regional gaps. The Balearic Islands have 9.2 foreign visitors for every resident, the eighth-highest ratio of any region in Europe. Canarias comes in at 4.9 arrivals per resident and Cataluña at 2, still more than double the EU average of 0.9. 

Economist Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, told elDiario.es that rents typically absorb 70 to 80 per cent of any rise in house purchase prices, based on existing research including a Banco de España report linking tourism to Spain’s property market. Rents tend to follow a steadier upward path than the more volatile sales market, he said.

El Prat’s leap to 80 million passengers a year

The projections land as Aena, Spain’s airport operator, pushes ahead with a record €13 billion investment plan for 2027 to 2031. One of the biggest projects is a €3.2 billion expansion of Barcelona’s El Prat airport, extending its main runway by 500 metres and adding a new satellite terminal, expected to lift annual capacity from 55 million to 80 million passengers by 2033. Madrid-Barajas is also in line for an even larger €4 billion share of the investment. Aena expects to finalise El Prat’s masterplan by 2028, with construction to follow in the years after.

The plan comes weeks after Mallorca’s biggest anti-tourism demonstration in years, when tens of thousands marched through Palma on Sunday July 26 under the banner “Menys turisme, més vida” (Catalan for “less tourism, more life”), calling for airport expansions to be scrapped altogether.

Who actually gains from the growth

Chapman is sceptical that airport expansions are mainly about business connectivity, as officials often claim. “In recent years, demand for business travel hasn’t grown because there are more online meetings,” he said. “The destinations that grow the most are the ones that bring in tourists, not investment.”

He also questions a University of Barcelona study predicting El Prat’s expansion will add €97 billion to GDP and create 83,000 jobs over 20 years, arguing most of that growth benefits large hotel groups while ignoring the side effects. He estimates rising property prices linked to tourist growth could cost Spain around €1 billion a year in lost investment elsewhere in the economy.

Even Spain’s digital nomad visa, in place since 2023, comes in for criticism. While it brings in tax revenue, Chapman said its effect on housing prices may cancel out much of that benefit.

Rent caps alone won’t fix the rise, economist warns 

Chapman doubts regulation can reverse the trend without a serious government push on social and affordable rental housing. Even where rent rises are capped, he said, prices can keep climbing on new contracts, and tenants may become reluctant to move for better jobs for fear of losing a capped tenancy.

The study puts Spain second only to Ireland for projected rent rises among the countries assessed, and third for tourism growth at 11 per cent, behind Greece and Portugal.