Corruption scandals and plunging polls: Will Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez call a snap election?

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is facing the most severe crisis of his tenure, as a web of corruption scandals engulfs his Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and strains his fragile coalition government.

With mounting public outrage, protests demanding his resignation, and pressure from within his alliance, speculation is rife about whether Sánchez could be compelled to dissolve parliament and call a snap general election before the scheduled 2027 vote. Prediction markets like Polymarket reflect this uncertainty, with implied probabilities around 40 per cent for a snap election being announced in late 2025 or by mid-2026, with all the ongoing scandals and budget woes.

Slim coalition power struggle

Sánchez’s path to power began after the July 2023 election, which he called following PSOE’s poor performance in regional polls. The centre-right People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, gained the most seats at 137 in the 350-seat Congress, with PSOE at 121, Vox at 33, and Sumar at 31. No bloc achieved a majority. After Feijóo’s failed investiture, Sánchez forged a minority coalition with Sumar and managed to get support from regional parties like ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and Canary Coalition. A controversial amnesty for Catalan separatists clinched Junts’ backing, allowing Sánchez to win investiture with 179 votes in November 2023. This ideologically diverse alliance has governed shakily ever since.

Snowballing corruption scandals

Currently, at the centre of the current turmoil are interconnected corruption cases orbiting PSOE and government ministries. The biggest, the “Koldo Case”, involves former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos and his advisor Koldo García, both imprisoned since November for allegedly taking commissions on irregular pandemic-era mask contracts worth over 50 million euros through shell company Soluciones de Gestión. The scheme extended to Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska‘s department and socialist-led regions like the Canary Islands and Baleares. Ábalos is also linked to dubious airline bailouts: SEPI, under Hacienda Minister María Jesús Montero, injected 53 million euros into Plus Ultra with Venezuelan ties and 475 million into Air Europa, allegedly accelerated via bribes involving businessman Víctor de Aldama. Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, has also been mentioned for her connections to Air Europa’s CEO.

Kickbacks from rigging public works contracts, accusations of corruption in Hacienda (the national tax authorities) and the Ministry of Ecological Transition, and accusations against ministers for blocking investigations have stained the Sánchez government’s reputation.

Polls plummeting

Public opinion has soured massively following these revelations, even from diehard supporters of PSOE. Tens of thousands rallied in Madrid in June demanding elections, and recent surveys show widespread backlash over PSOE’s handling of corruption and sexual harassment claims. Sánchez’s approval rating now stands at a dismal 25.7 per cent, with 69.6 per cent disapproval in early December polls, as a result of the scandals.

Polls indicate PSOE slipping: Politico’s November 2025 average shows PP at 32 per cent, PSOE at 28 per cent, Vox at 18 per cent, and Sumar at just 6 per cent.

Coalition support slipping

Adding fuel to the already blazing fire has been coalition partner Yolanda Díaz of Sumar, who demanded a “profound remodelling” of the government, decrying “unbearable corruption and sleaze.” She urged immediate action, including audits, and pressed Sánchez for public explanations, warning, “We can’t continue like this.” While not threatening to bolt, her direct talks with Sánchez reveal severe coalition fractures.

Sánchez vows to serve out his term, but with opposition PP and Vox calling for elections, budget battles looming, and scandals snowballing, a snap poll can’t be ruled out. As protests grow and polls dip, the question looms: will Sánchez weather the storm, or will the pressure force his hand? For many Spaniards, the question is no longer if?, but how soon?