Brits in Spain could see their healthcare, rent and taxes change under a new PP and Vox government

Most British residents in Spain don’t get a vote on Sunday November 29, yet the result could still reach their healthcare, rent and tax bills. With polls pointing to a possible PP and Vox majority, here’s what’s been said, what’s only speculation and what Madrid can’t change alone.

Healthcare comments target people without legal residence 

Healthcare is where the parties have said the most so far. Vox wants to remove the legal right to public healthcare for foreigners without legal residence. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said ‘irregular status cannot give rise to rights’, while PP MP Antonio Román said healthcare belongs to ‘those who abide by the law, pay their taxes and have legal residence’. Román added that emergency care would still be on the table.

However, those comments concern people without legal residence, and the report doesn’t say legal residents would be affected. 

The two parties aren’t identical on this though, as the PP voted against a Vox motion in April that would have tied migrants’ healthcare access to years of social security contributions. In regional deals in Extremadura and Aragón, PP and Vox agreed to review the cost of healthcare for foreign nationals, and not to exclude them. Vox has also made ‘national priority’ one of its three campaign themes, although its Estepona rally on Monday October 12 didn’t spell out what that would mean in practice. 

Rent caps and evictions could be rewritten

The snap election was called after PP and Vox voted down the government’s emergency housing measures. Now analysts expect a right-wing government to repeal parts of the Housing Law (Ley de Vivienda), which would remove rent caps, and say both parties have promised tougher and faster evictions.

That could cut both ways, with British landlords likely to gain and British tenants facing higher rents. These are the analysts’ predictions though, and not confirmed policy. 

Tax cuts are possible, but nothing is confirmed 

The same analysts say the PP has historically favoured cutting or scrapping the wealth tax and the temporary solidarity tax on large fortunes. Several PP-run regions have already cut inheritance and gift taxes, and a national government could go further. 

Again, that’s an expectation and not a pledge. 

Residency paperwork is partly out of Madrid’s hands 

The analysts suggest a new government reshuffling ministries or immigration rules could cause delays for residency renewals and Non-Lucrative Visas. The Golden Visa, which the current government plans to scrap, could also be reversed. 

However, the 90/180-day rule (the limit on visitor stays) is EU law, so no Spanish government can change it alone.

The polls point in different directions 

PolitPro’s election trend, updated on Monday October 19, puts the PP in front. Two polls published on Friday October 9 suggested the PP and Vox together would win about 198 seats (El País) and 200 seats (El Confidencial), above the 176 needed for a majority.

However, the state-run Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) poll on Wednesday October 14 had the PSOE (Pedro Sanchez’s party) on 34 per cent against 22.2 per cent for the PP, a lead of nearly 12 points. Meanwhile one SocioMétrica simulation for El Español gives Sánchez just a 0.1 per cent chance of stopping a right-wing absolute majority, with the PP 25 seats ahead of the PSOE.

Any coalition deal after the vote will show which of these ideas survive, and that’s when British residents will find out what, if anything, changes for them.