Global warming expected to break 1.5C threshold

Scientists are predicting that global warming will pass 1.5C between now and 2027. This threshold, they suggest, will see more extreme temperatures and weather conditions around the world. 

The unprecedented rise in relation to a long-term average is put down in part to human activity such as the burning of fossil fuel, but scientists say that if temperatures do breach the 1.5c threshold it is only likely to be temporary.

The rises are also partly due to changing global weather patterns but scientists have noticed a clear change between pre-and-post heavy fossil-fuel consumption.

The 1.5c represents the upper limit of tolerable temperature rise under the Paris Accord of 2015. Scientists believe that going beyond this threshold on a long-term basis would increase the longevity of heatwaves and make storms and wildfires much more intense.

Only a few years ago, back in 2020, meteorologists gave this level of temperature rise over five years little chance of happening. Now the likelihood of this happening before 2027 is believed by some researchers to be nearly 100 per cent.

For the UK this could mean even more rain between May and September but in the Arctic, the effects could be far more profound. Here the temperature rise could be three times that of the rest of the world.

You can see on the NASA chart below the difference in the effects of global warming on the Arctic region, when comparing the 1950s – 1970s with 2010s -2020s.

If this profound level of change were allowed to continue then scientists believe that the effect on the world’s climate could be catastrophic.

We are still well within the boundaries considered acceptable by the Paris Climate Accord or Paris Agreement, which says that changes would need to be prolonged over 20 years for the agreement to be broken.

But with the onward march of global temperature averages, it might be time to take another look at where we are headed.