The summer oil alert: Why 60% of Spain’s olive oil is already sold out for the year

Data from the International Olive Council (IOC) and Spain’s AICA for April 2026 confirms that roughly 60% of this season’s olive oil has already been dispatched, leaving stock levels lower than anticipated heading into summer. While production stabilized at 1.37 million tonnes, a surge in demand from the US and EU has kept wholesale prices locked at approximately €4.60 per kilo at origin.

For expats, this means the expected “price crash” to €5 per liter at supermarkets has stalled; instead, bottles remain between €8 and €10. With storage levels forecasted to drop significantly by August, industry experts warn that a pre-summer price hike is likely as retailers protect dwindling reserves.

Strong demand meets lower-than-expected supply

Spain remains the world’s leading olive oil producer, but this year’s harvest has not fully met expectations. Production is estimated at just over 1.27 million tonnes, slightly below initial projections following weather-related impacts earlier in the season.

Despite this, demand has remained consistently strong. Both domestic consumption and exports continue at a steady pace, meaning large volumes of oil have already been placed on the market earlier than usual. Industry representatives warn that if this trend continues, storage levels could fall significantly by late summer, leaving less buffer before the next harvest cycle begins.

Will olive oil become more expensive again?

This is the question many shoppers and businesses are now asking. While Spain is not expected to run out of olive oil, reduced stock levels often translate into higher prices, particularly when demand increases. The timing is important, as the summer season typically brings a surge in consumption, especially in coastal areas with high numbers of tourists and second-home residents.

For expats living in Spain, this could mean a gradual rise in everyday costs. Olive oil is a staple in both home cooking and the hospitality sector, so even moderate increases tend to ripple across supermarket prices and restaurant menus. Recent years have already shown how sensitive prices are to supply changes, with previous poor harvests pushing olive oil costs to record levels. Although this season is more stable, it has not fully rebuilt reserves, which keeps the market under pressure.

A key period before the next harvest

The coming months will be crucial in determining how the situation develops. If sales continue at the current pace, stock levels could tighten further before new production enters the market. Much will depend on early forecasts for the next harvest and whether demand begins to ease after the peak summer period.

Spain is not facing a shortage, but the conditions are in place for prices to move again, something many households across the country will be watching closely.