2023: Hottest Year On Record

Is the planet signalling a dire warning? The year 2023 has emerged as the warmest year in recorded history, surpassing 2016’s previous record.

According to the ERA5 dataset, the global average temperature for 2023 was 14.98°C, which is 0.17°C higher than the peak reached in 2016.

This unsettling milestone, announced recently, underscores the escalating urgency of the global climate crisis.

Global Temperature Trends

2023 marks a pivotal moment in climate history, being the hottest calendar year since records began in 1850. It was alarmingly 0.60°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels.

A concerning prediction suggests that by January or February 2024, the 12-month period could exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.

From June to December 2023, each month consistently recorded temperatures higher than any corresponding month in previous years.

The leap in global-average temperature from 2022 to 2023 was particularly significant. This shift from three consecutive years of La Niña to El Niño conditions in 2023 played a critical role, along with other contributing factors.

The daily global-average temperature trends in 2023 were particularly noteworthy. July witnessed the highest global temperatures on record in absolute terms, while November saw temperatures that were exceptionally high relative to the annual cycle. Starting from early June, almost every day set a new temperature record for its respective date.

2023 also marked the first time that every day of a year exceeded 1°C above the pre-industrial level. Nearly 50 per cent of these days were more than 1.5°C warmer, and two days in November astonishingly surpassed the 2°C mark.

Climate Thresholds

The progression towards the critical 1.5°C and 2°C limits, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, is typically discussed in terms of globally and annually averaged temperatures.

However, datasets like ERA5, with coverage extending back to the 1850-1900 reference period, allow for a more detailed understanding of the annual variations in warming. This enables a precise monitoring of daily exceedances of these warming limits.

Utilizing ERA5 data, it was observed that all days in 2023 experienced temperatures over 1°C higher than the corresponding 1850-1900 levels. Two days even exceeded the 2°C mark, a first in recorded history.

Approximately 50 per cent of the days in 2023 were more than 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial levels, a significant increase from the 20 per cent observed in 2016.

Future Projections

Was 2023’s unusual warmth anticipated? In part, yes. Predictions indicated that a year as warm as 2023 was inevitable due to ongoing climate change and an El Niño event. This was inferred from extrapolated observational data and climate projections in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported in 2022 and updated in 2023 that the probability of exceeding the 1.5°C mark in at least one year between 2022 and 2026 was between 48 and 66 per cent.

However, the extreme nature of the temperatures in 2023 also involved unforeseen factors, still under investigation, that contributed to this anomaly. Late in 2022, forecasts from ten climate prediction centres indicated a very low probability for such high annual temperatures.

As for 2024, forecasts suggest it could be even warmer than 2023. There’s a reasonable probability that the year will end with an average temperature exceeding the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels.

Europe’s Climatic Extremes

In Europe, 2023 was the second-warmest year, with temperatures 1.02°C above the 1991-2020 average, though 0.17°C cooler than the record-breaking 2020.

European temperatures remained above average for 11 months, with September being the warmest on record. The winter of December 2022 to February 2023 was the second warmest, while the summer ranked as the fifth warmest.

European temperatures displayed high variability, especially during spring and summer, with contrasting conditions across the continent.

Europe experienced heatwaves, marine heatwaves, and multiple record-breaking temperatures, alongside widespread drier-than-average conditions on land. The autumn of 2023 was also remarkably warm, ranking as the second warmest on record.

Heavy rainfall led to significant flood events throughout Europe. While these storms provided some relief to persistently dry regions, they also triggered severe floods in various parts of the continent.

Global Impact: Beyond Temperature Records

The repercussions of 2023’s unprecedented warmth were felt globally, transcending geographical boundaries.

In regions like Asia and Africa, the rising temperatures exacerbated existing environmental challenges. Droughts became more severe, affecting water availability and agriculture, crucial for the sustenance of millions.

In North America, the increase in temperature contributed to extreme weather events, including intense hurricanes and wildfires, causing significant damage to ecosystems and communities.

These climatic changes also spotlighted the urgent need for technological and scientific advancements in climate resilience.

Innovations in renewable energy, sustainable agricultural practices, and water conservation became more critical than ever.

A Call For Collective Action

This year’s data underscores the pressing need for concerted global efforts in combating climate change. The solutions lie in sustained action from governments, industries, and individuals alike.

The path ahead requires a holistic approach, encompassing policy reforms, technological innovation, and lifestyle changes to forge a sustainable future for generations to come